Can JPMorgan Chase Surge Higher?

With shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) trading around $55, is JPM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company that provides various financial services worldwide. The company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, asset management, and private equity. Financial services companies like JPMorgan Chase are essential for well-functioning economies around the world.

JPMorgan is suing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to recover more than $1 billion tied to its purchase of Washington Mutual when that bank failed in 2008. In a federal court complaint, the biggest U.S. bank said that the FDIC failed to honor obligations under the Washington Mutual agreement, and that has subjected JP Morgan to massive liability. The FDIC became the receiver for Seattle-based Washington Mutual when it collapsed during the height of the financial crisis in September 2008. It was the largest bank failure in U.S. history. The FDIC brokered the sale of Washington Mutual’s assets to JP Morgan for $1.9 billion. JPMorgan said the FDIC made promises to indemnify or protect the bank against liabilities if it stepped in.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

JPMorgan Chase stock has done relatively well in the past couple of years. The stock is currently trading sideways. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, JPMorgan Chase is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of JPMorgan Chase options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
JPMorgan Chase options	27.35%	93%	90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
January Options	Flat	Average
February Options	Flat	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on JPMorgan Chase’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for JPMorgan Chase look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	-112.14%	32.23%	33.61%	54.89%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-7.67%	13.67%	-3.57%	10.16%
Earnings Reaction	-0.01%	-0.30%	-0.60%	1.01%

JPMorgan Chase has seen increasing earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about JPMorgan Chase’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has JPMorgan Chase stock done relative to its peers, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and sector?

	JPMorgan Chase	Bank of America	Citigroup	Wells Fargo	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	26.84%	30.36%	27.73%	28.47%	29.35%

JPMorgan Chase has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

JPMorgan Chase is a bellwether in the banking space that forms an essential part of the United States financial system. The company is suing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to recover more than $1 billion tied to its purchase of Washington Mutual when that bank failed in 2008. The stock has done relatively well in recent months, but is now trading sideways. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been increasing while revenues have been mixed, which has produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, JPMorgan Chase has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what JPMorgan Chase does this quarter.