Australia's employment streak has sustained itself for yet another month. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the country's economy added 14,200 jobs in April, well ahead of economists' more conservative forecast of 8,800 jobs, and the fourth consecutive month of job gains.
In fact, over the past four months, overall employment has risen by 102,000 positions, with full-time employment accounting for more than 70 percent of the increase.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged, at 5.8 percent, which was one-tenth of a percentage point better than projected. However, the labor force participation rate declined by a tenth of a point, to 64.7 percent, just a tenth of a point off of the low for this cycle.
Also of note, the initial figure for March was revised higher, to a gain of 21,900 jobs from 18,100 jobs.
Full-time employment rose by 14,200 jobs, a stark contrast to last month's contraction of 22,700 full-time jobs. Meanwhile, part-time employment was essentially flat after last month's gain of 44,600 part-time jobs.
Full-time jobs are considered to be of higher quality than part-time jobs, since the latter tend to offer lower pay and less stability. Over the trailing year, full-time jobs have grown at an average 2,900 per month, while over the trailing six-month period the average has jumped to 10,600 positions per month. However, it should be noted that the latter number is skewed from February's blockbuster gain of 80,900 full-time jobs.
Growth in part-time employment has averaged 7,600 jobs per month over the trailing year and 5,900 jobs per month over the trailing six months.
The rise in employment was also mirrored by another increase in job advertisements. According to ANZ Research, which tallies the numbers of jobs advertised each month in the major daily newspapers and websites that serve Australia's capital cities, total job advertisem! ents rose 2.2 percent in April.
This marked the fourth consecutive month of rising jobs postings. In 2013, by contrast, there was a decline in job postings in 10 of the 12 months that year. According to ANZ, job ads are now 1.5 percent higher than a year ago, which compares quite favorably to the year-over-year declines of nearly 20 percent that occurred toward the middle of last year.
The improving trajectory is also evident when comparing medium-term periods with shorter-term periods. Over the past three years, the number of jobs advertised has declined at an average rate of 0.7 percent per month. However, that number has shown progressively greater strength over the near term, with total jobs advertised growing by 0.1 percent per month over the trailing year and by 1.2 percent over the past six months.
According to ANZ, job listings have historically proved to be a very good indicator of future labor market conditions and are often employed extensively when forecasting employment growth. Additionally, an ABS study of job advertisements concluded that rising trends in this data series tend to lead peaks in employment growth by one to three quarters, while falling trends precede troughs in employment by zero to two quarters.
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ANZ Chief Economist Ivan Colhoun said, "The pick-up in hiring intentions suggests employment growth will continue to improve modestly in the near term, and the unemployment rate should be close to a peak around 6 percent or slightly lower."
The latest figures comport with a noteworthy shift in the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest monetary policy statement, which noted, "There has been some improvement in indicators for the labor market, but it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently."
The RBA's previous statements asserted that the unemployment rate was likely to co! ntinue ri! sing in the near term. So even Australia's cautious central bank is finally seeing signs of a turn in the economy.
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